# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 2, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (15 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-08-02 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-2-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, August 2, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69, Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.5 dinger composite score against Kumar Rocker today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 67, Munetaka Murakami rates a 67.0 dinger composite score against Griffin Jax today), Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 65, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 64.6 dinger composite score against Chase Burns today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 2, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 1](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-1-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - PHI at BAL (Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Bradish), 1:35 PM ET - WSH at ATL (Cade Cavalli vs Martín Pérez), 1:35 PM ET - STL at TOR (Matthew Liberatore vs Max Scherzer), 1:37 PM ET - AZ at CLE (Merrill Kelly vs Gavin Williams), 1:40 PM ET - PIT at CIN (Mitch Keller vs Chase Burns), 1:40 PM ET - CWS at TB (Anthony Kay vs Griffin Jax), 1:40 PM ET - MIA at NYM (Sandy Alcantara vs TBD), 1:40 PM ET - TEX at HOU (Kumar Rocker vs TBD), 2:10 PM ET - NYY at CHC (Gerrit Cole vs Colin Rea), 2:20 PM ET - KC at COL (Seth Lugo vs Kyle Freeland), 3:10 PM ET - MIL at LAA (Jacob Misiorowski vs Walbert Ureña), 3:15 PM ET - DET at ATH (Keider Montero vs Gage Jump), 4:05 PM ET - SF at SD (Landen Roupp vs Michael King), 4:10 PM ET - MIN at SEA (Taj Bradley vs George Kirby), 4:10 PM ET - BOS at LAD (Jake Bennett vs Emmet Sheehan), 7:20 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Kumar Rocker (RHP) *Daikin Park · 35 HR · 18.6% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.714 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.51* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 15% of Kumar Rocker's pitches are his cutter, and hitters are punishing it (.500 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Alvarez squares the ball up at 18.6%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. I am backing Alvarez to clear the fences. ## Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox vs Griffin Jax (RHP) *Tropicana Field · 23 HR · 20.0% barrel · 104.6 mph EV · 0.516 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.98* Munetaka Murakami's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Griffin Jax leans on a 4-seam fastball 17% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .549 against it. His 20.0% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 4 HR in 7 games. Murakami to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chase Burns (RHP) *Great American Ball Park · 14 HR · 25.6% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.534 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.99* Barrel rate is the cleanest single predictor of home runs, and Esmerlyn Valdez's elite 25.6% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) sits in territory only a handful of bats reach. Pair that with 103.9 mph average exit velocity and the ceiling is obvious. Chase Burns is also a fly ball arm (37% ground ball rate), so balls in play go up rather than into the dirt. Valdez is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Colin Rea: 15.9% barrel rate. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Seth Lugo: 17.0% barrel rate. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Martín Pérez: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Seth Lugo: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Brandon Lowe** (PIT) vs Chase Burns: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-2-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*