# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 19, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Eduardo Valencia on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-08-19 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-19-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, August 19, 2026** are Eduardo Valencia (Score: 73, Eduardo Valencia rates a 72.5 dinger composite score against Paul Skenes today), Shohei Ohtani (Score: 72, Shohei Ohtani rates a 71.9 dinger composite score against Kyle Freeland today), Griffin Conine (Score: 67, Griffin Conine rates a 66.5 dinger composite score against Aaron Nola today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 19, 2026 318 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 18](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-18-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - DET at PIT (Jackson Jobe vs Paul Skenes), 12:35 PM ET - SD at NYM (Michael King vs Robert Stock), 1:10 PM ET - ATL at MIN (Chris Sale vs Taj Bradley), 1:40 PM ET - CWS at CHC (TBD vs Clay Holmes), 2:20 PM ET - AZ at BOS (Brandon Pfaadt vs Payton Tolle), 4:10 PM ET - MIA at PHI (Sandy Alcantara vs Aaron Nola), 6:05 PM ET - NYY at BAL (Will Warren vs Chris Bassitt), 6:35 PM ET - SF at CLE (Adrian Houser vs Parker Messick), 6:40 PM ET - STL at CIN (Matthew Liberatore vs Chase Burns), 6:40 PM ET - TOR at TB (Max Scherzer vs Drew Rasmussen), 6:40 PM ET - ATH at KC (Gage Jump vs Seth Lugo), 7:40 PM ET - SEA at MIL (Logan Gilbert vs Dustin May), 7:40 PM ET - WSH at TEX (Cade Cavalli vs Jacob deGrom), 8:05 PM ET - LAA at HOU (Walbert Ureña vs TBD), 8:10 PM ET - LAD at COL (Roki Sasaki vs Kyle Freeland), 8:40 PM ET ## Eduardo Valencia, Detroit Tigers vs Paul Skenes (RHP) *PNC Park · 6 HR · 25.6% barrel · 102.8 mph EV · 0.592 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.34* **Top play tonight.** Eduardo Valencia's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Paul Skenes leans on a sinker 11% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .500 against it. His 25.6% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Hot streak is real: 2 HR over the last 7 games is double his typical pace. Valencia is my HR lean in this spot. ## Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kyle Freeland (LHP) *Coors Field · 29 HR · 16.7% barrel · 103.8 mph EV · 0.581 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.16* Kyle Freeland throws his 4-seam fastball 24% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.709 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Shohei Ohtani should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 16.7% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Ohtani has been swinging at peak, 3 long balls in his last 7 games. Kyle Freeland's 89.9 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. 5,200 ft of elevation in Denver tacks on extra distance to anything in the air. Ohtani is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Griffin Conine, Miami Marlins vs Aaron Nola (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 13 HR · 16.7% barrel · 104.5 mph EV · 0.538 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.09* Lock in on the matchup math: 24% of Aaron Nola's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.722 SLG). Griffin Conine has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Conine squares the ball up at 16.7%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. He is hitting .333 over his last 7 games, the contact quality is there, the HR follows. Aaron Nola's 91.2 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Conine is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Max Muncy** (LAD) vs Kyle Freeland: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Taj Bradley: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Roki Sasaki: 16.7% barrel rate. - **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Will Warren: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Clay Holmes: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-19-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*