# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 17, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (11 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabi **Date:** 2026-08-17 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-17-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, August 17, 2026** are Eduardo Valencia (Score: 75, Eduardo Valencia rates a 75.1 dinger composite score against Carmen Mlodzinski today), Matt Olson (Score: 66, Matt Olson rates a 65.8 dinger composite score against Bailey Ober today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 65, Kyle Schwarber rates a 65.0 dinger composite score against Janson Junk today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 17, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 11 games. 206 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 16](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-16-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - STL at CIN (Andre Pallante vs Rhett Lowder), 1:40 PM ET - STL at CIN (Andre Pallante vs Rhett Lowder), 6:40 PM ET - BAL at TB (Brandon Young vs Nick Martinez), 6:05 PM ET - MIA at PHI (Janson Junk vs Cristopher Sánchez), 6:40 PM ET - DET at PIT (Framber Valdez vs Carmen Mlodzinski), 7:05 PM ET - AZ at BOS (TBD vs Ranger Suarez), 7:10 PM ET - SD at NYM (Walker Buehler vs Nolan McLean), 7:10 PM ET - ATH at KC (Mason Barnett vs Michael Wacha), 7:40 PM ET - ATL at MIN (Martín Pérez vs Bailey Ober), 7:40 PM ET - CWS at CHC (TBD vs Shota Imanaga), 8:05 PM ET - LAD at COL (Blake Snell vs Tomoyuki Sugano), 8:40 PM ET ## Eduardo Valencia, Detroit Tigers vs Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP) *PNC Park · 6 HR · 26.3% barrel · 103.0 mph EV · 0.611 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.14* **Top play tonight.** Carmen Mlodzinski throws his 4-seam fastball 28% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.550 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Eduardo Valencia should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 26.3% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Valencia to go deep is the play tonight. ## Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs Bailey Ober (RHP) *Target Field · 35 HR · 15.7% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.520 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.73* Matt Olson's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Bailey Ober leans on a 4-seam fastball 33% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .542 against it. At 15.7%, Olson carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. Bailey Ober averages just 88.1 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Olson to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Janson Junk (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 37 HR · 18.1% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.500 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.94* Janson Junk throws his sweeper 14% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.552 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Kyle Schwarber should be sitting on. Schwarber squares the ball up at 18.1%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Recent form lines up: 4 bombs in his last 7 contests. I am backing Schwarber to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Miguel Vargas** (CWS) vs Shota Imanaga: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 16.5% barrel rate. - **Alec Burleson** (STL) vs Rhett Lowder: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Max Muncy** (LAD) vs Tomoyuki Sugano: 13.6% barrel rate. - **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Nick Martinez: 4 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-17-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*