# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 16, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for August 16, 2026. A slate of 15 games scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors, with Eduardo Valencia leading tonight's HR picks. **Date:** 2026-08-16 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-16-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, August 16, 2026** are Eduardo Valencia (Score: 71, Eduardo Valencia rates a 70.8 dinger composite score against Sean Burke today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 63, Kyle Schwarber rates a 63.1 dinger composite score against Dean Kremer today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 63, Yordan Alvarez rates a 63.0 dinger composite score against Bryan Woo today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 16, 2026 340 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 15](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-15-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BAL at TB (Trevor Rogers vs Freddy Peralta), 12:15 PM ET - BOS at PIT (Patrick Sandoval vs Paul Skenes), 1:35 PM ET - AZ at ATL (Michael Soroka vs Bryce Elder), 1:35 PM ET - NYY at TOR (Ryan Weathers vs Dylan Cease), 1:37 PM ET - WSH at NYM (Jake Irvin vs Christian Scott), 1:40 PM ET - SD at CLE (Casey Mize vs Tanner Bibee), 1:40 PM ET - CWS at DET (Sean Burke vs Drew Anderson), 1:40 PM ET - MIA at CIN (Eury Pérez vs Nick Lodolo), 1:40 PM ET - PHI at MIN (Andrew Painter vs Dean Kremer), 2:10 PM ET - STL at CHC (Hunter Dobbins vs Edward Cabrera), 3:15 PM ET - COL at SF (Gabriel Hughes vs Blade Tidwell), 4:05 PM ET - TEX at ATH (Cody Bradford vs Jacob Lopez), 4:05 PM ET - KC at LAA (Noah Cameron vs Ryan Johnson), 4:07 PM ET - MIL at LAD (Logan Henderson vs Tarik Skubal), 4:10 PM ET - SEA at HOU (Bryan Woo vs Hunter Brown), 7:20 PM ET ## Eduardo Valencia, Detroit Tigers vs Sean Burke (RHP) *Comerica Park · 5 HR · 28.6% barrel · 102.5 mph EV · 0.603 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.91* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 17% of Sean Burke's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.494 SLG). Eduardo Valencia has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Valencia squares the ball up at 28.6%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. I am backing Valencia to clear the fences. ## Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Dean Kremer (RHP) *Target Field · 37 HR · 18.3% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.505 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.80* Kyle Schwarber's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Dean Kremer leans on a 4-seam fastball 26% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .675 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 18.3% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. He is also trending the right way, 4 HR over his last 7 games. Schwarber to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Bryan Woo (RHP) *Daikin Park · 36 HR · 18.0% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.688 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.70* Yordan Alvarez is a lefty who eats right handers, .677 slugging in that split with 27 home runs. Bryan Woo fits the script. Underneath the matchup is a 18.0% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. One reason to size down: Bryan Woo has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.70 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Alvarez to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Drew Anderson: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jac Caglianone** (KC) vs Ryan Johnson: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Michael Soroka: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Griffin Conine** (MIA) vs Nick Lodolo: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Freddy Peralta: 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-16-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*