# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 15, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9, with Griffin Conine on top of the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-08-15 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-15-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, August 15, 2026** are Griffin Conine (Score: 75, Griffin Conine rates a 74.7 dinger composite score against Brady Singer today), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Score: 69, Christian Encarnacion-Strand rates a 68.8 dinger composite score against Ian Seymour today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 69, Kyle Schwarber rates a 68.7 dinger composite score against Connor Prielipp today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 15, 2026 15 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 14](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-14-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CWS at DET (Anthony Kay vs Troy Melton), 1:10 PM ET - STL at CHC (Michael McGreevy vs Matthew Boyd), 2:20 PM ET - NYY at TOR (Cam Schlittler vs TBD), 3:07 PM ET - COL at SF (Michael Lorenzen vs Logan Webb), 4:05 PM ET - WSH at NYM (Brad Lord vs Sean Manaea), 4:10 PM ET - BAL at TB (Kyle Bradish vs Ian Seymour), 6:10 PM ET - MIA at CIN (Ryan Gusto vs Brady Singer), 6:40 PM ET - SD at CLE (Randy Vásquez vs Joey Cantillo), 7:10 PM ET - SEA at HOU (Emerson Hancock vs Hayden Wesneski), 7:10 PM ET - PHI at MIN (Jesús Luzardo vs Connor Prielipp), 7:10 PM ET - BOS at PIT (Sonny Gray vs Jared Jones), 7:15 PM ET - AZ at ATL (Eduardo Rodriguez vs Grant Holmes), 7:15 PM ET - MIL at LAD (Jacob Misiorowski vs Justin Wrobleski), 7:15 PM ET - KC at LAA (Randy Dobnak vs Reid Detmers), 9:38 PM ET - TEX at ATH (MacKenzie Gore vs J.T. Ginn), 9:40 PM ET ## Griffin Conine, Miami Marlins vs Brady Singer (RHP) *Great American Ball Park · 13 HR · 17.8% barrel · 104.8 mph EV · 0.561 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.22* **Top play tonight.** Griffin Conine's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Brady Singer leans on a sinker 48% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .452 against it. His 17.8% barrel rate (elite, top of the league) backs the take. Conine has been swinging at peak, 3 long balls in his last 7 games. An 90.8 mph fastball gives Conine something to drive. Conine is my HR lean in this spot. ## Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Baltimore Orioles vs Ian Seymour (LHP) *Tropicana Field · 4 HR · 20.4% barrel · 102.7 mph EV · 0.598 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.08* Ian Seymour throws his sinker 14% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.735 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Christian Encarnacion-Strand should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 20.4% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Ian Seymour's 90.9 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. Encarnacion-Strand is my HR lean in this spot. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies vs Connor Prielipp (LHP) *Target Field · 37 HR · 18.3% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.505 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.43* Kyle Schwarber's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Connor Prielipp leans on a 4-seam fastball 29% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .561 against it. The barrel rate (18.3%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 4 HR in 7 games. Take Schwarber to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Yordan Alvarez** (HOU) vs Emerson Hancock: 18.2% barrel rate. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Eduardo Rodriguez: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Michael McGreevy: 12.3% barrel rate. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Troy Melton: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Ian Seymour: 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-15-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*