# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 14, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for August 14, 2026. Yordan Alvarez leads the board across 14 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-08-14 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-14-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, August 14, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69, Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.8 dinger composite score against George Kirby today), Griffin Conine (Score: 68, Griffin Conine rates a 67.8 dinger composite score against Chase Burns today), Shohei Ohtani (Score: 64, Shohei Ohtani rates a 63.6 dinger composite score against Robert Gasser today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 14, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 14 factors. 297 candidates, 14 games, and here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 13](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-13-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - STL at CHC (Matthew Liberatore vs Clay Holmes), 2:20 PM ET - MIA at CIN (Sandy Alcantara vs Chase Burns), 6:10 PM ET - BOS at PIT (Jake Bennett vs Bubba Chandler), 6:40 PM ET - CWS at DET (TBD vs Jackson Jobe), 6:40 PM ET - WSH at NYM (Andrew Alvarez vs Robert Stock), 7:10 PM ET - SD at CLE (Michael King vs Gavin Williams), 7:10 PM ET - BAL at TB (Kyle Bradish vs TBD), 7:10 PM ET - AZ at ATL (Brandon Pfaadt vs Chris Sale), 7:15 PM ET - NYY at TOR (Gerrit Cole vs Shane Bieber), 7:15 PM ET - SEA at HOU (George Kirby vs Peter Lambert), 8:10 PM ET - KC at LAA (Seth Lugo vs Grayson Rodriguez), 9:38 PM ET - TEX at ATH (Kumar Rocker vs Gage Jump), 9:40 PM ET - MIL at LAD (Robert Gasser vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto), 10:10 PM ET - COL at SF (Kyle Freeland vs Landen Roupp), 10:15 PM ET ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs George Kirby (RHP) *Daikin Park · 35 HR · 18.0% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.687 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.78* **Top play tonight.** Yordan Alvarez draws George Kirby, who has been hemorrhaging long balls (1.78 HR/9). Even a single mistake usually leaves the yard against Yordan Alvarez's 18.0% barrel rate. Alvarez is my HR lean in this spot. ## Griffin Conine, Miami Marlins vs Chase Burns (RHP) *Great American Ball Park · 12 HR · 17.3% barrel · 104.5 mph EV · 0.539 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.79* Platoon math wins more dinger props than people realize. Griffin Conine slugs .651 against right handers with 13 HR in that split, and tonight he gets Chase Burns. The barrel rate (17.3%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. Chase Burns's 37% ground ball rate means more contact in the air, exactly what HR props need. That said, Chase Burns's 0.79 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. Take Conine to leave the yard tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs Robert Gasser (LHP) *UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 26 HR · 16.4% barrel · 103.6 mph EV · 0.566 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.89* Shohei Ohtani's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Robert Gasser leans on a sweeper 27% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .472 against it. The barrel rate (16.4%) is in the elite, top of the league tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. Ohtani has been swinging at peak, 3 long balls in his last 7 games. Robert Gasser averages just 91.3 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Take Ohtani to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Shane Bieber: 15.6% barrel rate. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Matthew Liberatore: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Brandon Pfaadt: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Luis García Jr.** (NYY) vs Shane Bieber: 12.3% barrel rate. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Jackson Jobe: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-14-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*