# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 13, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Data driven MLB home run picks for today's slate (9 games). A 14 factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerabil **Date:** 2026-08-13 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-13-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, August 13, 2026** are Griffin Conine (Score: 64, Griffin Conine rates a 64.4 dinger composite score against Braxton Ashcraft today), Shohei Ohtani (Score: 64, Shohei Ohtani rates a 64.3 dinger composite score against Shane Drohan today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 64, Munetaka Murakami rates a 63.8 dinger composite score against Andrew Abbott today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 13, 2026 206 power bats scored across 9 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 12](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-12-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - CLE at DET (Parker Messick vs Keider Montero), 1:10 PM ET - PIT at MIA (Braxton Ashcraft vs Tyler Phillips), 1:10 PM ET - SEA at NYY (Logan Gilbert vs Max Fried), 1:35 PM ET - CIN at CWS (Andrew Abbott vs Davis Martin), 2:10 PM ET - BOS at TOR (Payton Tolle vs Max Scherzer), 3:07 PM ET - CHC at WSH (Kevin Gausman vs Cade Cavalli), 4:05 PM ET - PHI at MIN (Aaron Nola vs Taj Bradley), 7:30 PM ET - TEX at LAA (Jacob deGrom vs Walbert Ureña), 10:07 PM ET - MIL at LAD (Shane Drohan vs Roki Sasaki), 10:10 PM ET ## Griffin Conine, Miami Marlins vs Braxton Ashcraft (RHP) *loanDepot park · 12 HR · 17.3% barrel · 104.5 mph EV · 0.539 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.45* **Top play tonight.** Braxton Ashcraft throws his 4-seam fastball 32% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.558 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Griffin Conine should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 17.3% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Conine to go deep is the play tonight. ## Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs Shane Drohan (LHP) *UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 26 HR · 16.4% barrel · 103.6 mph EV · 0.566 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.16* Shohei Ohtani's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Shane Drohan leans on a sinker 21% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .630 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 16.4% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. Ohtani to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox vs Andrew Abbott (LHP) *Rate Field · 26 HR · 20.8% barrel · 104.7 mph EV · 0.509 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.92* When Munetaka Murakami connects, the average exit velocity is 104.7 mph and his elite 20.8% barrel rate (90th+ percentile) means he is squaring balls up at a top of the league rate. Andrew Abbott is the matchup to take advantage. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Andrew Abbott averages just 92.3 mph on the heater, that's ML hitting practice for elite bats. Murakami to go deep is the play tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Taj Bradley: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Logan Gilbert: 15.6% barrel rate. - **Wilyer Abreu** (BOS) vs Max Scherzer: 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Luis García Jr.** (NYY) vs Logan Gilbert: 12.3% barrel rate. - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Cade Cavalli: 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-13-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*