# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 12, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for August 12, 2026. A slate of 15 games scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors, with Munetaka Murakami leading tonight's HR picks. **Date:** 2026-08-12 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-12-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, August 12, 2026** are Munetaka Murakami (Score: 68, Munetaka Murakami rates a 67.6 dinger composite score against Rhett Lowder today), Jac Caglianone (Score: 68, Jac Caglianone rates a 67.6 dinger composite score against Eric Lauer today), Ben Rice (Score: 64, Ben Rice rates a 63.6 dinger composite score against Bryce Miller today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 12, 2026 A slate of 15 games and 295 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 11](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-11-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BAL at MIN (Shane Baz vs Zebby Matthews), 1:40 PM ET - PHI at STL (Zack Wheeler vs Kyle Leahy), 2:15 PM ET - TB at ATH (Drew Rasmussen vs Jack Perkins), 3:05 PM ET - COL at AZ (Ryan Feltner vs Merrill Kelly), 3:40 PM ET - HOU at SF (TBD vs TBD), 3:45 PM ET - MIL at SD (Dustin May vs Robbie Ray), 4:10 PM ET - CLE at DET (Foster Griffin vs Framber Valdez), 6:40 PM ET - PIT at MIA (TBD vs Janson Junk), 6:40 PM ET - CHC at WSH (David Peterson vs Jackson Kent), 6:45 PM ET - SEA at NYY (Bryce Miller vs Will Warren), 7:05 PM ET - BOS at TOR (Ranger Suarez vs José Soriano), 7:07 PM ET - NYM at ATL (Zac Thornton vs Tyler Mahle), 7:15 PM ET - CIN at CWS (Rhett Lowder vs Luis Castillo), 7:40 PM ET - KC at LAD (Daniel Lynch IV vs Eric Lauer), 10:10 PM ET - TEX at LAA (TBD vs George Klassen), 10:10 PM ET ## Munetaka Murakami, Chicago White Sox vs Rhett Lowder (RHP) *Rate Field · 26 HR · 20.6% barrel · 104.7 mph EV · 0.505 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.09* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 29% of Rhett Lowder's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.461 SLG). Munetaka Murakami has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Murakami sits at 20.6%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. Murakami has been swinging at peak, 2 long balls in his last 7 games. I am backing Murakami to clear the fences. ## Jac Caglianone, Kansas City Royals vs Eric Lauer (LHP) *UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 20 HR · 14.5% barrel · 105.8 mph EV · 0.510 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.24* The reason Jac Caglianone jumps off the board: Eric Lauer can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.563 against this season. 43% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Jac Caglianone is going to see it. Caglianone squares the ball up at 14.5%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. An 89.8 mph fastball gives Caglianone something to drive. I am backing Caglianone to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Ben Rice, New York Yankees vs Bryce Miller (RHP) *Yankee Stadium · 32 HR · 15.6% barrel · 101.8 mph EV · 0.512 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.84* Lock in on the matchup math: 11% of Bryce Miller's pitches are his slider, and hitters are punishing it (.583 SLG). Ben Rice has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. At 15.6%, Rice carries barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality", top decile across MLB. Rice is my HR lean in this spot. ## Honorable Mentions - **Pete Crow-Armstrong** (CHC) vs Jackson Kent: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Zebby Matthews: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Zac Thornton: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Kyle Leahy: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Junior Caminero** (TB) vs Jack Perkins: 4 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-12-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*