# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 10, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for August 10, 2026. Shohei Ohtani leads the board across 10 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-08-10 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-10-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, August 10, 2026** are Shohei Ohtani (Score: 72, Shohei Ohtani rates a 72.0 dinger composite score against Noah Cameron today), Matt Olson (Score: 68, Matt Olson rates a 67.7 dinger composite score against Christian Scott today), Alec Burleson (Score: 65, Alec Burleson rates a 64.8 dinger composite score against Andrew Painter today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 10, 2026 A slate of 10 games and 188 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for August 9](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-9-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BOS at TOR (Sonny Gray vs TBD), 7:07 PM ET - NYM at ATL (Christian Scott vs Bryce Elder), 7:15 PM ET - BAL at MIN (Trevor Rogers vs Dean Kremer), 7:40 PM ET - PHI at STL (Andrew Painter vs Hunter Dobbins), 7:45 PM ET - TEX at LAA (Cal Quantrill vs Reid Detmers), 9:38 PM ET - COL at AZ (Gabriel Hughes vs TBD), 9:40 PM ET - TB at ATH (Freddy Peralta vs Jacob Lopez), 9:40 PM ET - MIL at SD (Logan Henderson vs Casey Mize), 9:40 PM ET - HOU at SF (Hayden Wesneski vs TBD), 9:45 PM ET - KC at LAD (Noah Cameron vs Tarik Skubal), 10:10 PM ET ## Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs Noah Cameron (LHP) *UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium · 26 HR · 16.6% barrel · 103.6 mph EV · 0.574 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.79* **Top play tonight.** The reason Shohei Ohtani jumps off the board: Noah Cameron can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.508 against this season. 11% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Shohei Ohtani is going to see it. Ohtani sits at 16.6%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Noah Cameron's 91.3 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. That said, Noah Cameron's 0.79 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. Take Ohtani to leave the yard tonight. ## Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs Christian Scott (RHP) *Truist Park · 33 HR · 15.5% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.519 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.51* Matt Olson has gone deep 4 times in his last 7 games while hitting .320. The bat is in the kind of rhythm where you ride it until it breaks. Olson squares the ball up at 15.5%, elite, top of the league contact quality on the year. Christian Scott is also a fly ball arm (34% ground ball rate), so balls in play go up rather than into the dirt. That said, Christian Scott's 0.51 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. I am backing Olson to clear the fences. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Alec Burleson, St. Louis Cardinals vs Andrew Painter (RHP) *Busch Stadium · 18 HR · 11.5% barrel · 102.1 mph EV · 0.533 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.44* Andrew Painter throws his 4-seam fastball 34% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.615 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Alec Burleson should be sitting on. The barrel rate (11.5%) is in the above average tier, a real edge rather than a small sample mirage. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. I am backing Burleson to clear the fences. ## Honorable Mentions - **Bryce Harper** (PHI) vs Hunter Dobbins: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Pete Alonso** (BAL) vs Dean Kremer: 13.3% barrel rate. - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Hunter Dobbins: 16.9% barrel rate. - **Christian Encarnacion-Strand** (BAL) vs Dean Kremer: 22.5% barrel rate. - **Jake Bauers** (MIL) vs Casey Mize: 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-10-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*