# MLB Dinger Picks Today (August 1, 2026): Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for August 1, 2026. A slate of 15 games scored across 14 Statcast and matchup factors, with Esmerlyn Valdez leading tonight's HR picks. **Date:** 2026-08-01 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-aug-1-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, August 1, 2026** are Esmerlyn Valdez (Score: 68, Esmerlyn Valdez rates a 67.5 dinger composite score against Andrew Abbott today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 67, Yordan Alvarez rates a 66.7 dinger composite score against Jacob deGrom today), James Wood (Score: 64, James Wood rates a 64.3 dinger composite score against Reynaldo López today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's fourteen factor Statcast and matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today: August 1, 2026 352 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and the matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): live per pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks for July 31](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-jul-31-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - STL at TOR (Quinn Mathews vs Kevin Gausman), 3:07 PM ET - MIN at SEA (Connor Prielipp vs Logan Gilbert), 4:10 PM ET - CWS at TB (Jordan Hicks vs Drew Rasmussen), 4:10 PM ET - MIA at NYM (Tyler Phillips vs Zac Thornton), 4:10 PM ET - PIT at CIN (Braxton Ashcraft vs Andrew Abbott), 6:40 PM ET - PHI at BAL (Cristopher Sánchez vs Shane Baz), 7:05 PM ET - TEX at HOU (Jacob deGrom vs Ronel Blanco), 7:10 PM ET - AZ at CLE (Kohl Drake vs Parker Messick), 7:15 PM ET - WSH at ATL (Miles Mikolas vs Reynaldo López), 7:15 PM ET - NYY at CHC (Max Fried vs David Peterson), 7:15 PM ET - KC at COL (Luinder Avila vs Ryan Feltner), 8:10 PM ET - SF at SD (Tyler Mahle vs Walker Buehler), 8:40 PM ET - BOS at LAD (Payton Tolle vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto), 9:10 PM ET - MIL at LAA (Robert Gasser vs José Soriano), 9:38 PM ET - DET at ATH (Framber Valdez vs Jack Perkins), 9:40 PM ET ## Esmerlyn Valdez, Pittsburgh Pirates vs Andrew Abbott (LHP) *Great American Ball Park · 14 HR · 25.6% barrel · 103.9 mph EV · 0.534 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.01* **Top play tonight.** Esmerlyn Valdez is a righty who eats left handers, .875 slugging in that split with 7 home runs. Andrew Abbott fits the script. Valdez sits at 25.6%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. Andrew Abbott's 92.4 mph average fastball is the kind of velocity power bats wait for. I am backing Valdez to clear the fences. ## Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros vs Jacob deGrom (RHP) *Daikin Park · 35 HR · 18.6% barrel · 105.4 mph EV · 0.714 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.78* Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Jacob deGrom leans on a 4-seam fastball 42% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .503 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 18.6% barrel rate, which is elite, top of the league territory. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. One reason to size down: Jacob deGrom has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.78 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. Alvarez to go deep is the play tonight. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## James Wood, Washington Nationals vs Reynaldo López (RHP) *Truist Park · 30 HR · 21.3% barrel · 106.3 mph EV · 0.597 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.51* James Wood is a lefty who eats right handers, .578 slugging in that split with 21 home runs. Reynaldo López fits the script. Wood sits at 21.3%, the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry, and that profile carries the lean. He is also trending the right way, 2 HR over his last 7 games. Reynaldo López's 1.51 HR/9 number is well above the 1.2 league baseline. Take Wood to leave the yard tonight. ## Honorable Mentions - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Luinder Avila: 17.0% barrel rate. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Drew Rasmussen: 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Miles Mikolas: 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jac Caglianone** (KC) vs Ryan Feltner: 14.8% barrel rate. - **Shohei Ohtani** (LAD) vs Payton Tolle: 16.8% barrel rate. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting, since a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor, so target 10% and up as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 14 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats): Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-aug-1-2026): no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters): batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide): NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*