# MLB Dinger Picks Today (April 29, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for April 29, 2026 - Aaron Judge leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-04-29 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-29-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, April 29, 2026** are Aaron Judge (Score: 65 — Aaron Judge rates a 65.2 dinger composite score against Nathan Eovaldi today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 65 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 64.8 dinger composite score against Chris Bassitt today), Ben Rice (Score: 64 — Ben Rice rates a 63.8 dinger composite score against Nathan Eovaldi today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - April 29, 2026 15-game slate, 247 eligible bats. These Statcast profiles and matchups stand out. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - April 28](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-28-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB @ CLE (Drew Rasmussen vs Gavin Williams) - 1:10 PM ET - LAA @ CWS (Yusei Kikuchi vs Erick Fedde) - 1:10 PM ET - SEA @ MIN (George Kirby vs Taj Bradley) - 1:40 PM ET - NYY @ TEX (Elmer Rodríguez vs Nathan Eovaldi) - 2:35 PM ET - BOS @ TOR (Brayan Bello vs Eric Lauer) - 3:07 PM ET - MIA @ LAD (Sandy Alcantara vs Tyler Glasnow) - 3:10 PM ET - CHC @ SD (Jameson Taillon vs Matt Waldron) - 4:10 PM ET - HOU @ BAL (Peter Lambert vs Chris Bassitt) - 6:35 PM ET - COL @ CIN (Tomoyuki Sugano vs Brandon Williamson) - 6:40 PM ET - STL @ PIT (Andre Pallante vs Bubba Chandler) - 6:40 PM ET - SF @ PHI (Logan Webb vs Cristopher Sánchez) - 6:40 PM ET - WSH @ NYM (Cade Cavalli vs David Peterson) - 7:10 PM ET - DET @ ATL (Tarik Skubal vs JR Ritchie) - 7:15 PM ET - AZ @ MIL (Eduardo Rodriguez vs Brandon Sproat) - 7:40 PM ET - KC @ ATH (Michael Wacha vs Luis Severino) - 9:40 PM ET ## Pick 1: Aaron Judge — NYY vs Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) *Globe Life Field · 11 HR · 26.1% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.677 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.52* **Top play tonight.** Nathan Eovaldi throws his 4-seam fastball 13% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 1.238 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Aaron Judge should be sitting on. His 26.1% barrel rate (elite, top-of-league) backs the take. Recent form lines up: 3 bombs in his last 7 contests. ## Pick 2: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Chris Bassitt (RHP) *Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 11 HR · 18.8% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.837 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.28* Chris Bassitt throws his 4-seam fastball 15% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.800 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Yordan Alvarez should be sitting on. Underneath the matchup is a 18.8% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Ben Rice — NYY vs Nathan Eovaldi (RHP) *Globe Life Field · 10 HR · 22.6% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.639 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.52* The reason Ben Rice jumps off the board: Nathan Eovaldi can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 1.238 against this season. 13% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Ben Rice is going to see it. His 22.6% barrel rate (elite, top-of-league) backs the take. He is also trending the right way — 2 HR over his last 7 games. ## Honorable Mentions - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Erick Fedde — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Spencer Torkelson** (DET) vs JR Ritchie — 5 HR in his last 7 games. - **Munetaka Murakami** (CWS) vs Yusei Kikuchi — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs David Peterson — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Sal Stewart** (CIN) vs Tomoyuki Sugano — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-29-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*