# MLB Dinger Picks Today (April 28, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Data-driven MLB home run picks for today's 15-game slate. 12-factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerability **Date:** 2026-04-28 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-28-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, April 28, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 64 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 64.3 dinger composite score against Shane Baz today), Ben Rice (Score: 61 — Ben Rice rates a 60.8 dinger composite score against Jacob deGrom today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 60 — Munetaka Murakami rates a 60.3 dinger composite score against José Soriano today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - April 28, 2026 Best HR plays from tonight's 15-game slate. 227 batters evaluated on barrel rate, pitcher matchup, and recent form. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - April 27](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-27-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB @ CLE (Nick Martinez vs Tanner Bibee) - 6:10 PM ET - HOU @ BAL (Kai-Wei Teng vs Shane Baz) - 6:35 PM ET - COL @ CIN (TBD vs Chase Burns) - 6:40 PM ET - STL @ PIT (Kyle Leahy vs TBD) - 6:40 PM ET - SF @ PHI (Tyler Mahle vs Jesús Luzardo) - 6:40 PM ET - BOS @ TOR (Payton Tolle vs Trey Yesavage) - 7:07 PM ET - WSH @ NYM (Zack Littell vs Clay Holmes) - 7:10 PM ET - DET @ ATL (Casey Mize vs Martín Pérez) - 7:15 PM ET - SEA @ MIN (Logan Gilbert vs Joe Ryan) - 7:40 PM ET - LAA @ CWS (José Soriano vs Davis Martin) - 7:40 PM ET - AZ @ MIL (TBD vs Chad Patrick) - 7:40 PM ET - NYY @ TEX (Cam Schlittler vs Jacob deGrom) - 8:05 PM ET - KC @ ATH (Kris Bubic vs Aaron Civale) - 9:40 PM ET - CHC @ SD (Edward Cabrera vs Walker Buehler) - 9:40 PM ET - MIA @ LAD (Janson Junk vs Shohei Ohtani) - 10:10 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Shane Baz (RHP) *Oriole Park at Camden Yards · 11 HR · 18.8% barrel · 105.3 mph EV · 0.837 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.64* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 41% of Shane Baz's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.600 SLG). Yordan Alvarez has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (18.8%) is in the elite, top-of-league tier — that is a real edge, not a small-sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. That said — Shane Baz's 0.64 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. ## Pick 2: Ben Rice — NYY vs Jacob deGrom (RHP) *Globe Life Field · 9 HR · 22.4% barrel · 104.1 mph EV · 0.627 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.43* Platoon math wins more dinger props than people realize. Ben Rice slugs .700 against right-handers with 5 HR in that split — and tonight he gets Jacob deGrom. The barrel rate (22.4%) is in the elite, top-of-league tier — that is a real edge, not a small-sample mirage. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. Jacob deGrom has been giving up 1.43 HR/9 this year, well above league average. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Munetaka Murakami — CWS vs José Soriano (RHP) *Rate Field · 11 HR · 23.7% barrel · 106.3 mph EV · 0.608 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.24* Munetaka Murakami is a lefty who eats right-handers — .623 slugging in that split with 8 home runs. José Soriano fits the script. Underneath the matchup is a 23.7% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. He is also trending the right way — 3 HR over his last 7 games. One reason to size down: José Soriano has been stingy with the long ball this year (0.24 HR/9), so the matchup is tougher than the bat profile alone reads. ## Honorable Mentions - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Davis Martin — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Clay Holmes — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Spencer Torkelson** (DET) vs Martín Pérez — 5 HR in his last 7 games. - **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Casey Mize — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Aaron Judge** (NYY) vs Jacob deGrom — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-28-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*