# MLB Dinger Picks Today (April 27, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for April 27, 2026: 8-game slate scored across 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Ben Rice leads tonight's HR picks. Updated daily. **Date:** 2026-04-27 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-27-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, April 27, 2026** are Ben Rice (Score: 68 — Ben Rice rates a 67.8 dinger composite score against Jack Leiter today), Mike Trout (Score: 67 — Mike Trout rates a 67.0 dinger composite score against Anthony Kay today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 67 — Munetaka Murakami rates a 66.7 dinger composite score against Jack Kochanowicz today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - April 27, 2026 132 batters, 8 games. Here's where the power and matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - April 26](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-26-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - TB @ CLE (Steven Matz vs Parker Messick) - 6:10 PM ET - STL @ PIT (Dustin May vs Mason Montgomery) - 6:40 PM ET - BOS @ TOR (Ranger Suarez vs Dylan Cease) - 7:07 PM ET - SEA @ MIN (Luis Castillo vs Connor Prielipp) - 7:40 PM ET - LAA @ CWS (Jack Kochanowicz vs Anthony Kay) - 7:40 PM ET - NYY @ TEX (Max Fried vs Jack Leiter) - 8:05 PM ET - CHC @ SD (Matthew Boyd vs Randy Vásquez) - 9:40 PM ET - MIA @ LAD (Chris Paddack vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto) - 10:10 PM ET ## Pick 1: Ben Rice — NYY vs Jack Leiter (RHP) *Globe Life Field · 9 HR · 23.6% barrel · 104.0 mph EV · 0.630 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.08* **Top play tonight.** Ben Rice's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Jack Leiter leans on a slider 22% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .526 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 23.6% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. 2 HR in his last 7 games means the bat is on time, not just on paper. ## Pick 2: Mike Trout — LAA vs Anthony Kay (LHP) *Rate Field · 8 HR · 23.5% barrel · 104.2 mph EV · 0.684 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.71* Anthony Kay throws his 4-seam fastball 34% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.722 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Mike Trout should be sitting on. His 23.5% barrel rate (elite, top-of-league) backs the take. Recent form lines up: 2 bombs in his last 7 contests. One small concern: 49°F at first pitch will eat a few feet off any deep drive. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Munetaka Murakami — CWS vs Jack Kochanowicz (RHP) *Rate Field · 11 HR · 24.6% barrel · 106.5 mph EV · 0.628 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.31* Streaky players are predictable in one way: they keep streaking until they don't. Munetaka Murakami sits at 4 HR over his last 7 games, and the matchup tonight does nothing to slow him down. Murakami squares the ball up at 24.6% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. Weather flag — 49°F is cold enough to suppress the long ball. That said — Jack Kochanowicz's 0.31 HR/9 is genuinely good. Treat this as a power play more than a matchup play. ## Honorable Mentions - **Max Muncy** (LAD) vs Chris Paddack — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Jordan Walker** (STL) vs Mason Montgomery — 21.0% barrel rate. - **Aaron Judge** (NYY) vs Jack Leiter — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **José Ramírez** (CLE) vs Steven Matz — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Oneil Cruz** (PIT) vs Dustin May — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-27-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*