# MLB Dinger Picks Today (April 26, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 16 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9 - Yordan Alvarez tops the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-04-26 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-26-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, April 26, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 74 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 74.1 dinger composite score against Luis Gil today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 66 — Munetaka Murakami rates a 66.1 dinger composite score against Foster Griffin today), Nick Kurtz (Score: 62 — Nick Kurtz rates a 61.8 dinger composite score against Kumar Rocker today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - April 26, 2026 235 power bats scored across 16 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - April 25](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-25-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BOS @ BAL (Connelly Early vs Kyle Bradish) - 1:35 PM ET - PHI @ ATL (Aaron Nola vs Chris Sale) - 1:35 PM ET - CLE @ TOR (Slade Cecconi vs Patrick Corbin) - 1:37 PM ET - DET @ CIN (Keider Montero vs Rhett Lowder) - 1:40 PM ET - COL @ NYM (Jose Quintana vs Nolan McLean) - 1:40 PM ET - COL @ NYM (Jose Quintana vs Kodai Senga) - 1:45 PM ET - MIN @ TB (Simeon Woods Richardson vs Jesse Scholtens) - 1:40 PM ET - WSH @ CWS (Foster Griffin vs Bryan Hudson) - 2:10 PM ET - NYY @ HOU (Luis Gil vs Spencer Arrighetti) - 2:10 PM ET - PIT @ MIL (Carmen Mlodzinski vs Kyle Harrison) - 2:10 PM ET - SEA @ STL (Emerson Hancock vs Michael McGreevy) - 2:15 PM ET - ATH @ TEX (J.T. Ginn vs Kumar Rocker) - 2:35 PM ET - SD @ AZ (Michael King vs Ryne Nelson) - 4:05 PM ET - MIA @ SF (Max Meyer vs Landen Roupp) - 4:05 PM ET - CHC @ LAD (Shota Imanaga vs Justin Wrobleski) - 4:10 PM ET - LAA @ KC (Reid Detmers vs Seth Lugo) - 7:20 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Luis Gil (RHP) *Daikin Park · 11 HR · 20.5% barrel · 105.8 mph EV · 0.871 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.38* **Top play tonight.** The reason Yordan Alvarez jumps off the board: Luis Gil can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.708 against this season. 41% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Yordan Alvarez is going to see it. A 20.5% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 3 HR in 7 games. ## Pick 2: Munetaka Murakami — CWS vs Foster Griffin (LHP) *Rate Field · 11 HR · 25.5% barrel · 106.7 mph EV · 0.657 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.72* Foster Griffin throws his 4-seam fastball 16% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.714 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Munetaka Murakami should be sitting on. Murakami's 25.5% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. Hot streak is real: 5 HR over the last 7 games is double his typical pace. Weather flag — 44°F is cold enough to suppress the long ball. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Nick Kurtz — ATH vs Kumar Rocker (RHP) *Globe Life Field · 5 HR · 23.5% barrel · 107.7 mph EV · 0.588 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.89* Recency bias is real, but so is 4 HR in 7 games while hitting .333. Nick Kurtz is locked in, and Kumar Rocker is not the arm to cool him off. Kurtz's 23.5% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. ## Honorable Mentions - **Colson Montgomery** (CWS) vs Foster Griffin — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Oneil Cruz** (PIT) vs Kyle Harrison — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Michael Harris II** (ATL) vs Aaron Nola — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Kodai Senga — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Spencer Arrighetti — 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-26-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*