# MLB Dinger Picks Today (April 25, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > MLB HR picks for April 25, 2026 - Yordan Alvarez leads the board across 15 games. Statcast power metrics, matchup context, and hot streaks scored. **Date:** 2026-04-25 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-25-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Saturday, April 25, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 73 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 72.7 dinger composite score against Ryan Weathers today), Mike Trout (Score: 66 — Mike Trout rates a 66.2 dinger composite score against Cole Ragans today), Munetaka Murakami (Score: 65 — Munetaka Murakami rates a 65.2 dinger composite score against Jake Irvin today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - April 25, 2026 Every qualified bat scored across 12 factors. 232 candidates, 15 games - here are the plays. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - April 24](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-24-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - BOS @ BAL (Garrett Crochet vs Trevor Rogers) - 12:05 PM ET - SEA @ STL (Bryan Woo vs Matthew Liberatore) - 2:15 PM ET - CLE @ TOR (Joey Cantillo vs Kevin Gausman) - 3:07 PM ET - MIA @ SF (Eury Pérez vs Robbie Ray) - 4:05 PM ET - COL @ NYM (Jose Quintana vs Kodai Senga) - 4:10 PM ET - MIN @ TB (Bailey Ober vs Shane McClanahan) - 4:10 PM ET - WSH @ CWS (Jake Irvin vs Noah Schultz) - 4:10 PM ET - SD @ AZ (Germán Márquez vs Zac Gallen) - 6:05 PM ET - ATH @ TEX (Jeffrey Springs vs MacKenzie Gore) - 7:05 PM ET - LAA @ KC (Walbert Urena vs Cole Ragans) - 7:10 PM ET - NYY @ HOU (Ryan Weathers vs Mike Burrows) - 7:10 PM ET - PIT @ MIL (Mitch Keller vs Jacob Misiorowski) - 7:10 PM ET - DET @ CIN (Jack Flaherty vs Brady Singer) - 7:15 PM ET - CHC @ LAD (Colin Rea vs Roki Sasaki) - 7:15 PM ET - PHI @ ATL (Zack Wheeler vs Bryce Elder) - 7:15 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Ryan Weathers (LHP) *Daikin Park · 11 HR · 21.2% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.868 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.28* **Top play tonight.** Yordan Alvarez's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Ryan Weathers leans on a 4-seam fastball 32% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .625 against it. Alvarez's 21.2% barrel rate is barrel rate that screams "elite contact quality" — top decile across MLB. Hot streak is real: 4 HR over the last 7 games is double his typical pace. ## Pick 2: Mike Trout — LAA vs Cole Ragans (LHP) *Kauffman Stadium · 8 HR · 24.6% barrel · 104.1 mph EV · 0.720 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.57* Mike Trout's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Cole Ragans leans on a changeup 18% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .500 against it. Underneath the matchup is a 24.6% barrel rate, which is elite, top-of-league territory. Trout has been swinging at peak — 2 long balls in his last 7 games. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Munetaka Murakami — CWS vs Jake Irvin (RHP) *Rate Field · 10 HR · 24.5% barrel · 106.5 mph EV · 0.649 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.50* Munetaka Murakami's edge tonight is the pitch he is going to see most. Jake Irvin leans on a sinker 23% of the time, and league hitters are slugging .632 against it. A 24.5% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. Murakami is on a serious heater right now — 5 HR in 7 games is well past his baseline. ## Honorable Mentions - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Mike Burrows — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Noah Schultz — 5 HR in his last 7 games. - **Nick Kurtz** (ATH) vs MacKenzie Gore — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Aaron Judge** (NYY) vs Mike Burrows — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Kodai Senga — 3 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-25-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*