# MLB Dinger Picks Today (April 24, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Data-driven MLB home run picks for today's 14-game slate. 12-factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerability **Date:** 2026-04-24 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-24-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Friday, April 24, 2026** are Munetaka Murakami (Score: 71 — Munetaka Murakami rates a 70.9 dinger composite score against Miles Mikolas today), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 69 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 68.9 dinger composite score against Will Warren today), Mike Trout (Score: 66 — Mike Trout rates a 65.8 dinger composite score against Noah Cameron today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - April 24, 2026 14 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - April 23](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-23-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - DET @ CIN (Framber Valdez vs Andrew Abbott) - 6:40 PM ET - BOS @ BAL (Brayan Bello vs Brandon Young) - 7:05 PM ET - CLE @ TOR (Gavin Williams vs Max Scherzer) - 7:07 PM ET - COL @ NYM (Michael Lorenzen vs Freddy Peralta) - 7:10 PM ET - MIN @ TB (Taj Bradley vs Drew Rasmussen) - 7:10 PM ET - PHI @ ATL (Andrew Painter vs Grant Holmes) - 7:15 PM ET - LAA @ KC (Yusei Kikuchi vs Noah Cameron) - 7:40 PM ET - WSH @ CWS (Miles Mikolas vs Bryan Hudson) - 7:40 PM ET - PIT @ MIL (Paul Skenes vs Brandon Woodruff) - 7:40 PM ET - ATH @ TEX (Luis Severino vs Nathan Eovaldi) - 8:05 PM ET - NYY @ HOU (Will Warren vs Lance McCullers Jr.) - 8:10 PM ET - SEA @ STL (George Kirby vs Andre Pallante) - 8:15 PM ET - CHC @ LAD (Jameson Taillon vs Emmet Sheehan) - 10:15 PM ET - MIA @ SF (Sandy Alcantara vs Adrian Houser) - 10:15 PM ET ## Pick 1: Munetaka Murakami — CWS vs Miles Mikolas (RHP) *Rate Field · 10 HR · 25.5% barrel · 106.8 mph EV · 0.674 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.81* **Top play tonight.** Miles Mikolas throws his slider 22% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.750 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Munetaka Murakami should be sitting on. His 25.5% barrel rate (elite, top-of-league) backs the take. He is also trending the right way — 5 HR over his last 7 games. ## Pick 2: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Will Warren (RHP) *Daikin Park · 11 HR · 21.2% barrel · 104.9 mph EV · 0.868 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.08* The reason Yordan Alvarez jumps off the board: Will Warren can be hit on his 4-seam fastball, which batters are slugging 0.487 against this season. 48% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Yordan Alvarez is going to see it. Alvarez squares the ball up at 21.2% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. The bat has been a different gear lately — 4 HR in his last 7 games is well ahead of his season pace. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: Mike Trout — LAA vs Noah Cameron (LHP) *Kauffman Stadium · 8 HR · 24.6% barrel · 104.1 mph EV · 0.720 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.25* Noah Cameron throws his cutter 25% of the time, and the league is teeing off for a 0.545 slugging mark against it. That is the pitch Mike Trout should be sitting on. Trout squares the ball up at 24.6% — elite, top-of-league contact quality on the year. The recent stretch tells you the timing is right: 2 HR in 7 games. ## Honorable Mentions - **Nick Kurtz** (ATH) vs Nathan Eovaldi — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Lance McCullers Jr. — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **James Wood** (WSH) vs Bryan Hudson — 5 HR in his last 7 games. - **Colson Montgomery** (CWS) vs Miles Mikolas — 4 HR in his last 7 games. - **Max Muncy** (LAD) vs Jameson Taillon — 4 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-24-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*