# MLB Dinger Picks Today (April 23, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Dinger of the Day for April 23, 2026: 9-game slate scored across 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Munetaka Murakami leads tonight's HR picks. **Date:** 2026-04-23 **Author:** Jason Bowman **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-23-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Thursday, April 23, 2026** are Munetaka Murakami (Score: 66 — Munetaka Murakami rates a 65.9 dinger composite score against Michael Soroka today), Mickey Moniak (Score: 63 — Mickey Moniak rates a 63.0 dinger composite score against Matt Waldron today), James Wood (Score: 62 — James Wood rates a 62.0 dinger composite score against JR Ritchie today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - April 23, 2026 121 batters, 9 games. Here's where the power and matchup line up for dingers tonight. > [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - live Per-pitch Statcast breakdowns for every batter vs the night's pitchers. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - April 22](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-22-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - ATL @ WSH (JR Ritchie vs Cade Cavalli) - 1:05 PM ET - MIL @ DET (Brandon Sproat vs Tarik Skubal) - 1:10 PM ET - PHI @ CHC (Cristopher Sánchez vs Edward Cabrera) - 2:20 PM ET - SD @ COL (Matt Waldron vs Ryan Feltner) - 3:10 PM ET - CWS @ AZ (Davis Martin vs Michael Soroka) - 3:40 PM ET - LAD @ SF (Tyler Glasnow vs Logan Webb) - 3:45 PM ET - NYY @ BOS (Cam Schlittler vs TBD) - 6:10 PM ET - MIN @ NYM (Joe Ryan vs Christian Scott) - 7:10 PM ET - PIT @ TEX (Bubba Chandler vs Jacob deGrom) - 8:05 PM ET ## Pick 1: Munetaka Murakami — CWS vs Michael Soroka (RHP) *Chase Field · 8 HR · 26.2% barrel · 106.2 mph EV · 0.602 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.81* **Top play tonight.** Lock in on the matchup math: 43% of Michael Soroka's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.615 SLG). Munetaka Murakami has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. The barrel rate (26.2%) is in the elite, top-of-league tier — that is a real edge, not a small-sample mirage. Recent form lines up: 5 bombs in his last 7 contests. ## Pick 2: Mickey Moniak — COL vs Matt Waldron (RHP) *Coors Field · 6 HR · 13.3% barrel · 99.0 mph EV · 0.461 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.81* Matt Waldron is giving up 2.81 HR/9 — bottom-tier among qualified starters and well above the 1.2 league average. Mickey Moniak, with 6 home runs already on the year, is exactly the kind of bat that takes advantage. 5,200 ft of elevation in Denver tacks on extra distance to anything in the air. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats). ## Pick 3: James Wood — WSH vs JR Ritchie (RHP) *Nationals Park · 8 HR · 28.8% barrel · 108.3 mph EV · 0.646 xSLG · opp HR/9 1.20* James Wood is a lefty who eats right-handers — .578 slugging in that split with 6 home runs. JR Ritchie fits the script. A 28.8% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry — that profile carries the lean. Wood is on a serious heater right now — 3 HR in 7 games is well past his baseline. ## Honorable Mentions - **Hunter Goodman** (COL) vs Matt Waldron — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Dillon Dingler** (DET) vs Brandon Sproat — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Edward Cabrera — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Ramón Laureano** (SD) vs Ryan Feltner — 15.5% barrel rate. - **Brandon Lowe** (PIT) vs Jacob deGrom — 4 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Hitter vs Pitch Mix dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Hitter vs Pitch Mix Dashboard](/mlb/hitting-stats) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-23-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [Jason Bowman](/blog/author/jason-bowman) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*