# MLB Dinger Picks Today (April 19, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets > Who hits a home run tonight? 15 games analyzed through barrel rate, xSLG, platoon splits, and pitcher HR/9 - Yordan Alvarez tops the dinger board. **Date:** 2026-04-19 **Author:** HeatCheck HQ **Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props **Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-19-2026 **Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io --- **Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, April 19, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 74 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 74.1 dinger composite score against Matthew Liberatore today), Jordan Walker (Score: 61 — Jordan Walker rates a 60.7 dinger composite score against Mike Burrows today), Kyle Schwarber (Score: 60 — Kyle Schwarber rates a 59.7 dinger composite score against Grant Holmes today). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily. # MLB Dinger Picks Today - April 19, 2026 191 power bats scored across 15 games. These are tonight's top dinger targets. > [Due for HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - live Statcast profiles for every batter. > **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - April 18](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-18-2026) ## Tonight's Slate - SF @ WSH (Robbie Ray vs Miles Mikolas) - 1:35 PM ET - TB @ PIT (Shane McClanahan vs Mitch Keller) - 1:35 PM ET - KC @ NYY (Cole Ragans vs Ryan Weathers) - 1:35 PM ET - BAL @ CLE (Trevor Rogers vs Joey Cantillo) - 1:40 PM ET - MIL @ MIA (Jacob Misiorowski vs Eury Pérez) - 1:40 PM ET - STL @ HOU (Matthew Liberatore vs Mike Burrows) - 2:10 PM ET - CIN @ MIN (Brady Singer vs Bailey Ober) - 2:10 PM ET - NYM @ CHC (Tobias Myers vs Javier Assad) - 2:20 PM ET - LAD @ COL (Roki Sasaki vs Michael Lorenzen) - 3:10 PM ET - CWS @ ATH (Noah Schultz vs Jeffrey Springs) - 4:05 PM ET - SD @ LAA (Michael King vs Reid Detmers) - 4:07 PM ET - TEX @ SEA (MacKenzie Gore vs Bryan Woo) - 4:10 PM ET - TOR @ AZ (Kevin Gausman vs Ryne Nelson) - 4:10 PM ET - DET @ BOS (Framber Valdez vs Garrett Crochet) - 4:35 PM ET - ATL @ PHI (Grant Holmes vs Andrew Painter) - 7:20 PM ET ## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez — HOU vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP) *Daikin Park · 8 HR · 20.6% barrel · 105.1 mph EV · 0.836 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.14* **Top play tonight.** The reason Yordan Alvarez jumps off the board: Matthew Liberatore can be hit on his slider, which batters are slugging 0.600 against this season. 32% of his pitches are that one offering, which means Yordan Alvarez is going to see it. Alvarez's 20.6% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry. The bat has been a different gear lately — 3 HR in his last 7 games is well ahead of his season pace. ## Pick 2: Jordan Walker — STL vs Mike Burrows (RHP) *Daikin Park · 8 HR · 24.0% barrel · 107.0 mph EV · 0.699 xSLG · opp HR/9 2.05* Lock in on the matchup math: 27% of Mike Burrows's pitches are his 4-seam fastball, and hitters are punishing it (.1000 SLG). Jordan Walker has the kind of barrel profile that turns that pitch into a souvenir. Walker's 24.0% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry. > **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Due for HR dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). ## Pick 3: Kyle Schwarber — PHI vs Grant Holmes (RHP) *Citizens Bank Park · 6 HR · 27.8% barrel · 102.9 mph EV · 0.531 xSLG · opp HR/9 0.85* Tonight is a platoon spot the model loves: Kyle Schwarber (6 HR vs RHP, .833 SLG in that split) drawing Grant Holmes. Schwarber's 27.8% barrel rate is the kind of barrel rate only a handful of players in the league carry. The bat has been a different gear lately — 3 HR in his last 7 games is well ahead of his season pace. ## Honorable Mentions - **Aaron Judge** (NYY) vs Cole Ragans — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Michael King — 2 HR in his last 7 games. - **Max Muncy** (LAD) vs Michael Lorenzen — 20.5% barrel rate. - **Mickey Moniak** (COL) vs Roki Sasaki — 3 HR in his last 7 games. - **Freddie Freeman** (LAD) vs Michael Lorenzen — 2 HR in his last 7 games. ## Related Guides - [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters) - [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide) - [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained) ## Before You Lock Check the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline. Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr). **More from HeatCheck HQ:** - [Due for a HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - Statcast power profiles for every batter - [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-19-2026) - no run first inning best bets - [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks - [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown *Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).* ## Related Resources - Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props) - Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day) - Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq) - Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog) --- *Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*