# MLB Dinger Picks Today (April 13, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets

> Data-driven MLB home run picks for today's 10-game slate. 12-factor Statcast model combines barrel rate, exit velocity, platoon matchups, pitcher vulnerability

**Date:** 2026-04-13  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-13-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB home run picks for Monday, April 13, 2026** are Yordan Alvarez (Score: 67 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 67), Jordan Walker (Score: 63 — Jordan Walker rates a 62), Chase DeLauter (Score: 62 — Chase DeLauter rates a 62). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Dinger Picks Today - April 13, 2026

10 games on the board. These bats have the Statcast profiles and matchups to go deep.

> [Due for HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - live Statcast profiles for every batter.

> **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - April 12](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-12-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- HOU @ SEA (Mike Burrows vs George Kirby) - 4:10 PM ET
- AZ @ BAL (Ryne Nelson vs TBD) - 6:35 PM ET
- WSH @ PIT (Cade Cavalli vs Paul Skenes) - 6:40 PM ET
- CHC @ PHI (Javier Assad vs Cristopher Sánchez) - 6:40 PM ET
- LAA @ NYY (Yusei Kikuchi vs Will Warren) - 7:05 PM ET
- MIA @ ATL (Eury Pérez vs Grant Holmes) - 7:15 PM ET
- BOS @ MIN (Garrett Crochet vs Bailey Ober) - 7:40 PM ET
- CLE @ STL (Gavin Williams vs Matthew Liberatore) - 7:45 PM ET
- TEX @ ATH (Nathan Eovaldi vs Luis Severino) - 9:40 PM ET
- NYM @ LAD (David Peterson vs Justin Wrobleski) - 10:10 PM ET

## Pick 1: Yordan Alvarez - HOU vs George Kirby (RHP)

6 HR on season | T-Mobile Park

- **Barrel %:** 21.7%
- **Exit Velocity:** 104.8 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.858
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 50% / 23.8°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 43.5%
- **Season HRs:** 6
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 12 PA
- **Recent Form (L7):** 3 HR, 0.417 AVG
- **Platoon SLG (vs RHP):** 0.563
- **Platoon HR (vs RHP):** 3
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.35

Yordan Alvarez is tonight's top HR play against George Kirby, a 4-seam fastball-sinker pitcher (57% 4-Seam Fastball, 22% Sinker). Batters are slugging 0.667 against his slider — that's a pitch Yordan Alvarez can do damage on. Statcast power profile: elite 21.7% barrel rate (90th+ percentile), 104.8 mph exit velocity, 0.858 xSLG. Red hot — 3 HR in his last 7 games, batting 0.417. Favorable LHB vs RHP platoon — slugging 0.563 with 3 HR in that split.

## Pick 2: Jordan Walker - STL vs Gavin Williams (RHP)

7 HR on season | Busch Stadium

- **Barrel %:** 26.3%
- **Exit Velocity:** 107.7 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.799
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 37% / 13.5°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 47.4%
- **Season HRs:** 7
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 9 PA
- **Recent Form (L7):** 1 HR, 0.217 AVG
- **Platoon SLG (vs RHP):** 0.605
- **Platoon HR (vs RHP):** 4
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.05

Jordan Walker is a strong HR candidate against Gavin Williams, a 4-seam fastball-sweeper pitcher (35% 4-Seam Fastball, 25% Sweeper). Batters are slugging 0.700 against his cutter — that's a pitch Jordan Walker can do damage on. Statcast power profile: elite 26.3% barrel rate (90th+ percentile), 107.7 mph exit velocity, 0.799 xSLG.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Due for HR dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

## Pick 3: Chase DeLauter - CLE vs Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

5 HR on season | Busch Stadium

- **Barrel %:** 19.5%
- **Exit Velocity:** 103.2 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.613
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 32% / 12.4°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 43.9%
- **Season HRs:** 5
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 12 PA
- **Recent Form (L7):** 5 HR, 0.346 AVG
- **Platoon SLG (vs LHP):** 0.563
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 2.25

Chase DeLauter is a strong HR candidate against Matthew Liberatore, a 4-seam fastball-slider pitcher (44% 4-Seam Fastball, 32% Slider). Batters are slugging 0.647 against his slider — that's a pitch Chase DeLauter can do damage on. Statcast power profile: elite 19.5% barrel rate (90th+ percentile), 103.2 mph exit velocity, 0.613 xSLG. Red hot — 5 HR in his last 7 games, batting 0.346.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Shea Langeliers** (ATH) vs Nathan Eovaldi - 12.8% barrel, 101.7 EV, 0.534 xSLG, 5 HR, 2.54 opp HR/9
- **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Eury Pérez - 21.4% barrel, 103.2 EV, 0.576 xSLG, 4 HR, 2.25 opp HR/9
- **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Javier Assad - 25.0% barrel, 103.3 EV, 0.523 xSLG, 4 HR, 0.00 opp HR/9
- **Luke Raley** (SEA) vs Mike Burrows - 18.5% barrel, 103.3 EV, 0.583 xSLG, 3 HR, 1.69 opp HR/9
- **Ben Rice** (NYY) vs Yusei Kikuchi - 25.0% barrel, 104.4 EV, 0.694 xSLG, 4 HR, 0.63 opp HR/9

## Related Guides

- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline.

Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Due for a HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - Statcast power profiles for every batter
- [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-13-2026) - no run first inning best bets
- [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*