# MLB Dinger Picks Today (April 12, 2026) - Best Home Run Bets

> Dinger of the Day for April 12, 2026: 15-game slate scored across 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Ben Rice leads tonight's HR picks. Updated daily.

**Date:** 2026-04-12  
**Author:** HeatCheck HQ  
**Tags:** MLB, Home Run, Dinger, HR Picks, Statcast, Daily Picks, Betting Strategy, Player Props  
**Full article:** https://heatcheckhq.io/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-12-2026  
**Live picks & dashboards:** https://heatcheckhq.io

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**Today's best MLB home run picks for Sunday, April 12, 2026** are Ben Rice (Score: 69 — Ben Rice rates a 69), Yordan Alvarez (Score: 68 — Yordan Alvarez rates a 68), Jordan Walker (Score: 65 — Jordan Walker rates a 64). Rankings are generated by HeatCheck HQ's 12-factor Statcast+matchup scoring model, updated daily.

# MLB Dinger Picks Today - April 12, 2026

116 batters, 15 games. Here's where the power and matchup line up for dingers tonight.

> [Due for HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - live Statcast profiles for every batter.

> **Yesterday's dinger picks:** [MLB HR Picks - April 11](/blog/mlb-dinger-of-the-day-apr-11-2026)

## Tonight's Slate

- SF @ BAL (Adrian Houser vs Cade Povich) - 1:35 PM ET
- AZ @ PHI (Zac Gallen vs Andrew Painter) - 1:35 PM ET
- MIN @ TOR (Taj Bradley vs Max Scherzer) - 1:37 PM ET
- LAA @ CIN (José Soriano vs Andrew Abbott) - 1:40 PM ET
- ATH @ NYM (Aaron Civale vs Freddy Peralta) - 1:40 PM ET
- MIA @ DET (Sandy Alcantara vs Tarik Skubal) - 1:40 PM ET
- NYY @ TB (Cam Schlittler vs Drew Rasmussen) - 1:40 PM ET
- CWS @ KC (Grant Taylor vs Noah Cameron) - 2:10 PM ET
- WSH @ MIL (Zack Littell vs Brandon Woodruff) - 2:10 PM ET
- BOS @ STL (Brayan Bello vs Andre Pallante) - 2:15 PM ET
- PIT @ CHC (Bubba Chandler vs Jameson Taillon) - 2:20 PM ET
- COL @ SD (Kyle Freeland vs Nick Pivetta) - 4:10 PM ET
- HOU @ SEA (TBD vs Logan Gilbert) - 4:10 PM ET
- TEX @ LAD (Jacob deGrom vs Roki Sasaki) - 4:10 PM ET
- CLE @ ATL (Tanner Bibee vs Chris Sale) - 7:20 PM ET

## Pick 1: Ben Rice - NYY vs Drew Rasmussen (RHP)

4 HR on season | Tropicana Field

- **Barrel %:** 23.1%
- **Exit Velocity:** 104.2 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.662
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 27% / 12.0°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 42.3%
- **Season HRs:** 4
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 13 PA
- **Recent Form (L7):** 2 HR, 0.360 AVG
- **Platoon SLG (vs RHP):** 0.906
- **Platoon HR (vs RHP):** 4
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.80

The numbers point to Ben Rice tonight. Best score on the board. Statcast power profile: elite 23.1% barrel rate, 104.2 mph exit velocity, 0.662 xSLG. Trending up with 2 HR in his last 7 games and a 0.360 recent average. Ben Rice (LHB) has the platoon edge against the R-handed Drew Rasmussen - slugging 0.906 with 4 HR in that split. Drew Rasmussen has been giving up the long ball at a 1.80 HR/9 rate, well above the ~1.2 league average.

## Pick 2: Yordan Alvarez - HOU vs Logan Gilbert (RHP)

6 HR on season | T-Mobile Park

- **Barrel %:** 22.7%
- **Exit Velocity:** 104.7 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.888
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 52% / 24.1°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 43.2%
- **Season HRs:** 6
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 11 PA
- **Recent Form (L7):** 3 HR, 0.417 AVG
- **Platoon SLG (vs RHP):** 0.621
- **Platoon HR (vs RHP):** 3
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 0.56

Yordan Alvarez also checks out - good power profile, soft matchup. Statcast power profile: elite 22.7% barrel rate, 104.7 mph exit velocity, 0.888 xSLG. 6 HRs on the season with a 8.8% HR/PA rate. Red hot - 3 HR in his last 7 games, batting 0.417. Yordan Alvarez (LHB) has the platoon edge against the R-handed Logan Gilbert - slugging 0.621 with 3 HR in that split.

> **Want the full board?** See all of today's plays on [Top Plays](/top-plays), or dive deeper on the [Due for HR dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

## Pick 3: Jordan Walker - STL vs Brayan Bello (RHP)

6 HR on season | Busch Stadium

- **Barrel %:** 26.5%
- **Exit Velocity:** 107.6 mph
- **xSLG:** 0.770
- **FB% / Launch Angle:** 38% / 12.0°
- **Sweet Spot %:** 47.1%
- **Season HRs:** 6
- **HR Pace:** 1 per 9 PA
- **Recent Form (L7):** 1 HR, 0.217 AVG
- **Platoon SLG (vs RHP):** 0.529
- **Platoon HR (vs RHP):** 3
- **Opposing Pitcher HR/9:** 1.13

Don't sleep on Jordan Walker tonight. Statcast power profile: elite 26.5% barrel rate, 107.6 mph exit velocity, 0.770 xSLG. 6 HRs on the season with a 10.5% HR/PA rate.

## Honorable Mentions

- **Matt Olson** (ATL) vs Tanner Bibee - 21.6% barrel, 103.6 EV, 0.580 xSLG, 4 HR, 2.05 opp HR/9
- **Kyle Schwarber** (PHI) vs Zac Gallen - 28.0% barrel, 103.1 EV, 0.539 xSLG, 4 HR, 0.60 opp HR/9
- **Chase DeLauter** (CLE) vs Chris Sale - 17.9% barrel, 103.3 EV, 0.572 xSLG, 5 HR, 1.69 opp HR/9
- **Mike Trout** (LAA) vs Andrew Abbott - 26.5% barrel, 103.4 EV, 0.551 xSLG, 2 HR, 0.53 opp HR/9
- **Oneil Cruz** (PIT) vs Jameson Taillon - 18.4% barrel, 108.2 EV, 0.595 xSLG, 4 HR, 1.76 opp HR/9

## Related Guides

- [Finding Undervalued HR Hitters](/blog/finding-undervalued-home-run-hitters)
- [Hitter vs Pitcher Matchup Guide](/blog/hitter-vs-pitcher-matchup-guide)
- [MLB Stats Explained](/blog/mlb-stats-explained)

## Before You Lock

Check the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) for full Statcast breakdowns. Confirm lineups and starting pitchers before betting - a different arm changes everything. Barrel rate is the best single predictor; target 10%+ as your baseline.

Our dinger model combines 12 Statcast and matchup factors. Full details on the [Due for a Homer dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr).

**More from HeatCheck HQ:**
- [Due for a HR Dashboard](/mlb/due-for-hr) - Statcast power profiles for every batter
- [NRFI Picks Today](/blog/mlb-nrfi-picks-apr-12-2026) - no run first inning best bets
- [Hot Hitters](/mlb/hot-hitters) - batters on active hitting streaks
- [NRFI Strategy Guide](/blog/nrfi-betting-strategy-guide) - NRFI methodology breakdown

*Updated as lineups confirm. Full slate at [heatcheckhq.io](https://heatcheckhq.io).*

## Related Resources

- Parent hub: [MLB Props Hub](/blog/topic/mlb-props)
- Daily stream: [MLB Dinger of the Day](/blog/stream/mlb-dinger-of-the-day)
- Author: [HeatCheck HQ](/blog/author/heatcheck-hq)
- Browse all posts: [Sports Betting Insights & Guides](/blog)


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*Data powered by HeatCheck HQ — sports analytics platform. Free tools at https://heatcheckhq.io*